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MillimeterSuper MicroCast pinpoints Katrina landfall 72 hours in advance
Sep 6, 2005 11:18 AM
Weather Central Inc., provider of state-of-the-art broadcast weather solutions, today announced that its proprietary Super MicroCast hyper-local forecast model accurately predicted Hurricane Katrina’s landfall within five minutes and one mile of the actual event. In July, Super MicroCast predicted landfall of Hurricane Dennis with similar precision.
On Friday, August 26, 2005, the Super MicroCast model showed Hurricane Katrina moving to the west through the Gulf of Mexico for a much longer period of time than was being forecast at that time by the National Hurricane Center. The August 26 Super MicroCast forecast predicted landfall on Monday, August 29, at 6:05 a.m. CDT near Triumph, La. The actual landfall occurred at 6:10 a.m. near Triumph, La., within one mile of the predicted location and within five minutes of what Super MicroCast had predicted. Super MicroCast also captured the immense size of Katrina’s hurricane-force wind swath and the rapid intensification that occurred early on Sunday, August 28.
“Because Weather Central owns and develops the Super MicroCast model, it is easy to make changes to it based on new research, technology, and verification information,” said Mike Thomas, Weather Central meteorologist and Super MicroCast product manager. “We have a staff dedicated to monitoring and verifying the model performance, and improving the model algorithms based on our research and statistical analysis. Before the 2005 tropical storm season began, we made several changes and enhancements to the model, including initialization from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model and improving sea surface temperature analysis. Super MicroCast is now incredibly precise in forecasting tropical storms.”
GFS, from the National Center for Environmental Prediction, provides MicroCast with additional power to generate a local forecast worldwide. The addition of real-time sea surface temperature data and analysis in the model adds another ingredient to the model’s success in forecasting tropical systems. The anomalously warm water in the Gulf of Mexico played a significant role in the strengthening of Katrina, and the real-time data allowed Super MicroCast to predict its effect on the storm.
“The government models, which are often managed by large committees, can take months, even years to respond to advances in computer modeling and technology,” said Brian Good, Weather Central Meteorologist and Super MicroCast Software Engineer. “We can test and quickly implement new algorithms, techniques and data into Super MicroCast ensuring constant improvement and accuracy.”
Super MicroCast is now available worldwide, and is the only forecast model for television that can be customized and run on-site at a client facility. It can produce forecasts, up to 84 hours in advance and at 4km grid resolution, for hyper-local detail and precise forecasting of microclimates within a television station’s viewing area.
Weather Central Inc., founded in 1974 by broadcasters and meteorologists and based in Madison, Wisconsin, is a leader in providing professional on-air, online, and print weather systems and forecasting utilizing dynamic weather graphics, precise forecast models and data, and patented technology. More than 500 customers worldwide enjoy the benefits of Weather Central’s attention to detail and insight about serving their total weather graphics needs. Products and services available from Weather Central, and its affiliated companies - MyWeather and WCInteractive - are: 3D:LIVE, :LIVE, and NBC Weather Plus weather presentation systems, ESP:LIVE storm tracking system, A.D.O.N.I.S. FutureCast and A.D.O.N.I.S. MicroCast proprietary forecast models, MetroVision forecast visualization tool, WxWarn2 severe weather crawl system, Personal MicroCast and Live Online individualized, online weather information and forecast products, ScreenWRITER and SportsWRITER interactive news and sports presentation systems, and WxPoint automated localized weather display system.
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